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AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
This could create a "China shock 2.0" that impacts other economies around the world. AdvertisementThis is just one of the industries the world is bracing for in the next phase of the "China shock." What happened in China shock 1.0? How Beijing could be creating China shock 2.0Now, China is targeting three new strategic industries that the rest of the world is also eyeing. What are the US and the rest of the world doing about China shock 2.0?
Persons: , Xi, David H, Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H, Hanson, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Biswas, keener, Janet Yellen, Yellen, it's, Wang Wenbin, Wang, Nomura Organizations: Service, Beijing, OECD, European Union, Department of Energy, Treasury, European Commission, EU, Act, Wall Street, Bloomberg Locations: China, EU, Beijing, Communist China, Georgia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America
David Autor seems an unlikely A.I. But Mr. Autor is now making the case that the new wave of technology — generative artificial intelligence, which can produce hyper-realistic images and video and convincingly imitate humans’ voices and writing — could reverse that trend. Mr. Autor’s stance on A.I. Modern A.I., Mr. Autor said, is a fundamentally different technology, opening the door to new possibilities. And if more people, including those without college degrees, can do more valuable work, they should be paid more, lifting more workers into the middle class.
Persons: David Autor, Autor, A.I, Mr Organizations: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mr
“Algunos de ellos dicen explícitamente que esta es una oportunidad para regodearse y celebrar el asesinato de judíos en internet”, declaró. “Están intentando atraer público a sus contenidos, y este es un momento de enorme crecimiento para ellos”. Sheera Frenkel es una reportera afincada en la bahía de San Francisco que cubre el impacto de la tecnología en la vida cotidiana, centrándose en las redes sociales, como Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, YouTube, Telegram y WhatsApp. Más deSheera FrenkelSteven Lee Myers cubre temas de desinformación para The New York Times. Ha trabajado en Washington, Moscú, Bagdad y Pekín, donde contribuyó a los artículos que ganaron el Premio Pulitzer por servicio público en 2021.
The ATM was supposed to wipe out bank tellers. And yet, here we are in 2023, with unemployment in the US at 3.8%, and an estimated 9.6 million jobs available. Tech typically creates more jobs overallSimply put, technology creates more jobs than it takes away. For example, there were fears that the advent of ATMs would put bank tellers out of work. And sure enough, a few years after the adoption of the ATM, there were fewer bank tellers per branch.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, David Autor, who's, Banks, James Bessen, Here's Morgan Stanley, Uber, Carl Benedikt Frey, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson Organizations: Service, Tech, Microsoft, Microsoft Excel, National Association of Economic Research, London, Oxford Martin School Locations: London, Hollywood
Over the course of three conversations this summer, Acemoglu told me he's worried we're currently hurtling down a road that will end in catastrophe. "There's a fair likelihood that if we don't do a course correction, we're going to have a truly two-tier system," Acemoglu told me. "I was following the canon of economic models, and in all of these models, technological change is the main mover of GDP per capita and wages," Acemoglu told me. In later empirical work, Acemoglu and Restrepo showed that that was exactly what had happened. "I realize this is a very, very tall order," Acemoglu told me.
Persons: who's, Katya Klinova, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Acemoglu, Johnson, we've, he's, we're, Power, James Robinson, , Robinson, David Autor, Pascual Restrepo, Restrepo, John Maynard Keynes, Simon Simard, Lord Byron, Eric Van Den Brulle, hasn't, it's, Gita Gopinath, Paul Romer, Romer, What's, Daron, GPT, Asu Ozdaglar, It's, Mark Madeo, Tattong, Erik Brynjolfsson, Brynjolfsson, There's, Yoshua Bengio, Yuval Noah Harari, Andrew Yang, Elon Musk, I've, That's, Aki Ito Organizations: Getty, MIT, of Technology, Hulton, London School of Economics, Stagecoach, Technology, , International Monetary Fund, Microsoft, Asu, Companies, Computer, Greenpeace, Communications, Big Tech, Workers Locations: Silicon Valley, America, Boston, Istanbul, Turkey, Acemoglu, England, United States, Britain, Australia
‘Sigue tu pasión’ podría ser un mal consejo
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Alina Tugend | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
“La gente empieza a considerar el trabajo como simplemente un trabajo y esa es una buena señal”. Antes de la década de 1970, la pasión no era una prioridad para quienes buscaban trabajo, aseveró Cech, autora de The Trouble With Passion: How Searching for Fulfillment at Work Fosters Inequality. Lo importante era tener un sueldo decente, horarios y seguridad laboral y, si había satisfacción, llegaba más tarde, a medida que adquirías más destreza en el trabajo. Eso empezó a cambiar en la década de 1970, con la creciente inestabilidad laboral de los profesionales y un énfasis cultural cada vez mayor en la autoexpresión y la autosatisfacción, un cambio plasmado en el muy popular libro de 1970 ¿De qué color es tu paracaídas? En particular, preocuparte por si el trabajo te va a satisfacer aplica sobre todo al privilegiado mundo de los oficinistas.
We didn't see the internet coming, but AI is within viewThe adoption of groundbreaking technology is often hard to predict. The World Economic Forum estimated 83 million jobs worldwide would be lost over the next five years because of AI, with 69 million jobs created — that leaves 14 million jobs that will cease to exist during that timeframe. In the US, the knowledge-worker class is estimated to be nearly 100 million workers, one out of three Americans. The small and large compounding effects of productivity growth across many industries are central to the growth trajectory and the long-run effects of AI. This is an alarmingly trivial amount for an economy of $25 trillion GDP and over 150 million workers.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joseph Schumpeter, Bill Gates, David Letterman, Paul Krugman, Erik Brynjolfsson, , Brynjolfsson, Robert Solow, Robert Gordon, provocatively, It's, Gordon, David Autor, Maria Flynn, Flynn, , Georgia –, Emil Skandul, Tony Blair Organizations: McKinsey, Newsweek, Stanford University, Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco, Economic, International Labor Organization, Organization for Economic Co, Development, MIT, Congressional, Office, Department of Labor, Tony Blair Institute Locations: Washington, Singapore, New York, Georgia
Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows that de minimis shipments into the U.S. rose to 685.5 million in 2022, up nearly 67% over 2018. That equals roughly two to three million packages a day, Robert Silvers, Under Secretary for Policy at the Department of Homeland Security, told lawmakers in July. A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers in June introduced bills that would ban de minimis shipments from China upon enactment. Rival U.S. retailers also have grown increasingly concerned about the exemption as Shein and Temu have gained market share. In 2015, Congress raised the cap on de minimis shipments to $800 from $200, making the U.S. threshold one of the highest in the world.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shein, Peter Pernot, Robert Silvers, minimis, Jason Smith, Temu, Steve Story, They're, Erik Autor, Katherine Masters, Anna Driver Organizations: REUTERS, PDD Holdings, U.S, Reuters, American Apparel and Footwear Association, de, U.S . Customs, Border Protection, Department of Homeland Security, Republican, Columbia, Apex Logistics International, UPS, FedEx, Barlow & Company, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, Mexico, Canada
Income inequality has narrowed in the US, with low-wage workers receiving raises during the pandemic. This trend has been tapering off, though labor market competition has benefited wage growth. This was thanks to pre-pandemic minimum wage legislation, coupled with higher raises for lower wage workers in the tumultuous years that followed. Although low-wage workers have slightly narrowed the gap, corporate profits have boomed, allowing those at the very top to stay separated from the rest. In June 2022, low-wage workers saw 7.2% wage growth from the prior year, falling to 6.5% in June 2023.
Persons: It's, David Autor, Ford, Autor, Harry Holzer, John LaFarge Jr, SJ, Georgetown University's, Holzer, Biden, " Holzer Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, MIT Department of Economics, American Bar Association, Public, Georgetown, Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public, Federal Reserve Bank of, Economic Policy Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Elon Musk cambia el logotipo de Twitter a una X
  + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Noam Scheiber | Ryan Mac | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
Ahora enfrenta a un competidor bien financiado en Threads, el servicio similar a Twitter recientemente presentado por Meta, la compañía que es dueña de Facebook. Musk ha tenido una larga afinidad por la letra X. Es el autor de The Escape Artists. Más sobre Noam ScheiberRyan Mac es un reportero de tecnología enfocado en la responsabilidad corporativa en la industria tecnológica mundial. Ganó un premio George Polk en 2020 por su cobertura sobre Facebook y vive en Los Ángeles.
“Affected could mean made better, made worse, disappeared, doubled.”One complicating factor is that technology tends to automate tasks, not entire occupations. In 2016, for instance, the artificial intelligence pioneer Geoffrey Hinton considered new “deep learning” technology capable of reading medical images. And Mr. Hinton has since become a vocal public critic of the same technology he helped create. “People always think that the number must be somehow solid, you know, because it’s a number. It’s possible that you should charge more per hour, because you’re going to get a lot more done.
Persons: Autor, Geoffrey Hinton, , Hinton, Frey, Osborne, Melanie Arntz, You’re Organizations: ., ZEW Center, European Economic Research Locations: Mannheim, Germany
Businesses are expected to use AI to boost productivity and their profits. The adoption of AI could mean higher wages for workers — or that they lose their jobs altogether. In the years ahead, generative AI including ChatGPT could disrupt — not necessarily replace — 300 million full-time jobs across the globe, according to Goldman Sachs. Over the next decade, that AI productivity boost could increase S&P 500 profits by 30% or more, Ben Snider, a senior strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week. "AI will make superstar companies more productive and profitable, but those profits might be achieved at the expense of other companies," he said.
Brynjolfsson and his co-authors of a study compared the call center employees who used the tool to those who didn’t. Customer sentiment was also higher and employee turnover lower in the group that used the tool. “That offers an opportunity to enable more workers to do valuable work that relies on some of that expertise,” he said. tool for some tasks may free up workers to expand their work on tasks that can’t be automated. Of course, there’s no guarantee that workers will be qualified for new jobs, or that they’ll be good jobs.
In midsized metros Metros with 250,000 to one million residents. An Emerging Divide Mobility has risen for college-educated workers, even as it has fallen for workers without a degree. College-educated workers leaving the most expensive parts of the country are also not spreading out equally everywhere — or even going to parts of the country that are struggling. Net migration among college graduates Loss Gain Among the 12 most expensive metros, net college migration has generally declined or turned negative. “Consumer cities,” as she puts it, are increasingly replacing “producer cities” as the places where college graduates want to live.
Labor economist David Autor told NPR he believes AI could revitalize the middle class. "The good scenario is one where AI makes elite expertise cheaper and more accessible," Autor told NPR. "First of all, we live in the physical world, which most machines do not," Autor told NPR. "In my mind, I actually think the irony is that the labor market is the least scary part of this at the moment," Autor told NPR. Autor also said, in a worst-case scenario, "we use AI to kill each other" — echoing similar warnings from other researchers.
Huawei's co-developed Aito electric car brand is now selling an updated version of the M5 model that comes with new driver-assist tech. Around the Shanghai auto show that kicked off last week, electric car startups and Chinese tech companies alike made several announcements about their driver-assist tech. But McKinsey estimates assisted and fully autonomous driving systems in passenger cars could generate $300 billion to $400 billion in global revenue by 2035. Those maps, used by autonomous driving companies such as Alphabet 's Waymo, give a car a detailed picture of city streets. Xpeng, considered one of the most advanced technologically, saw deliveries plunge in the first quarter ahead of a more widespread rollout of its assisted driving tech.
Artificial intelligence could cheapen educated labor and reduce inequality. "The general presumption is that AI — and even before that, office software — would impact middle-skill workers," Acemoglu told Insider. That word "exposure" means AI could either replace high-income workers, which would reduce inequality, or make them even more productive, which would increase it. "You can imagine devolving some of the most highly skilled tasks to less skilled people," Autor said. Additionally, "the more skilled workers may be able to shield themselves," he said.
Low-Wage Workers Climb the Earnings Ladder
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Competition for low-wage workers will become more intense, a new paper says. With the broad job losses the pandemic set off concentrated in low-wage industries, the earnings gap between the rich and the poor seemed likely to only widen. It has narrowed instead, with wage growth among lower-paid and less-educated workers outstripping wage growth among the better-paid and more highly educated. Their findings suggest that even as the pandemic fades, competition for low-wage workers will be more intense than before the pandemic. That could lead to further reductions in income inequality, raise labor costs at firms that employ low-wage workers, and reshape the U.S. business landscape.
Medicii spun că o viață intimă armonioasă este foarte importantă pentru evoluția cu succes a sarcinii, dar și a viitoarei nașteri. În plus, la multe femei în timpul sarcinii apar hemoroizii, ceea ce creează dureri și disconfort”, explică Iraida Snigur. Care sunt beneficiile sexului în timpul sarciniiMedicii sunt unanimi în părerea că sexul în timpul sarcinii este necesar pentru ambii parteneri. Iată câteva avantaje de a face sex în timpul sarcinii:Buna dispozițieAbstinența prelungită în timpul sarcinii nu este benefică nici viitoarei mame, nici viitorului tată. Plăcere mai mareÎn timpul sarcinii fluxul de sânge către pelvis crește, vaginul se îngustează și clitorisul crește.
Persons: Ginecologii, paterni, Snigur Organizations: Universitatea Leiden
Nu e mare scofală să-i detectezi, pentru că au nasul lung ca Pinocchio ori de câte ori denaturează cu bună știință realitatea. În campania pentru parlamentarele anticipate, blocul înstelaților, sau cum li se mai spune la Văleni, al steluțarilor, s-a apucat să apere familia tradițională. Numai că eu, bunăoară, care am o familie tradițională, nu i-am împuternicit să mă apere. Am impresia că nicio familie tradițională nu i-a împuternicit cu acte de la notar să o apere de pericolul trâmbițat de steluțari. Și aici e întrebarea: nu cumva asta e normalitatea tradițională pe care o ocrotiți cu înverșunare periodică, în cicluri electorale, domnilor flagomani?
Persons: Carlo Collodi, Pinocchio, Vasile Botnaru Organizations: OSCE, Radio Europa Liberă Locations: Văleni, poftim, Chișinău
Misiunea de Observare Promo-LEX a făcut public cel de al cincilea raport de monitorizare a alegerilor parlamentare anticipate din 11 iulie 2021. Activitatea Comisiei Electorale Centrale (CEC) din această perioadă a fost una intensă, fiind adoptate 77 de hotărâri privind organizarea și desfășurarea scrutinului parlamentar. 4390 din 20 octombrie 2020 adoptată pentru alegerile Prezidențiale a avut un caracter disuasiv și a contribuit la diminuarea numărului de incidente de transportare organizată a alegătorilor. Cu referință la activitatea observatorilor, Promo-LEX a atestat că, aceștia nu au avut acces deplin la listele electorale. Totodată, Promo-LEX a estimat pentru toate cele șase săptămâni de campanie electorală, cheltuieli neraportate de cel puțin 10 859 900 de lei.
Persons: ., Renato Usatîi, Fiodor Ghelici, Valeriu Munteanu, Igor Dodon, Dorin Chirtoacă, Victoria Grosu, Andrei Năstase, Iurie, Vladimir Voronin, Gheorghe, Cristian Rizea Organizations: CEC, Coaliției Civice, Alegeri, Prezidențiale, SV, PDM, PRM, Agenției, Agenției Statelor Unite, Fundației Soros Moldova Locations: Coaliției, CEC, Republicii Moldova, AUR, Victoria, Victoria Grosu Vremeș, PLD, Agenției Statelor, străinătate, Regatului Țărilor de Jos, Chișinău, Republica Moldova
RISE Moldova a aflat că societățile create pe coasta de est a Americii Centrale sunt controlate de Vladimir Andronachi, un deputat de încredere al oligarhului Vlad Plahotniuc. Prima dată, Andronachi a ocupat un fotoliu de deputat, din cele 101 disponibile, în 2015. Astfel, în perioada 2013-2017, Andronachi a încasat pe cele două conturi 385 de mii de euro. Conform informațiilor de la Agenția Servicii Publice, în 2009, Webwest Alliance LTD – afiliată deputatului Andronachi, a devenit asociată unică a Universal Proiect SRL. În 2016, Black Sea Holdings Company LP a transferat peste 195 de mii de euro societății Black Sea Holdings SA.
Persons: Andronache, Plahotniuc, Vladimir Andronachi, Vlad Plahotniuc, Andronachi, Nadejda Andronachi, BEM, Andrei Organizations: Moldova, Partidul Democrat din, PDM, Autoritatea Națională, Alliance, Black Sea Holdings, Black Sea Holdings SA, Webwest Alliance, Agenția, Webwest, Universal, britanice Locations: Belize, Americii, străinătate, Partidul Democrat din Moldova, Moldova, Chișinău, România, Bank, Letonia, Economii, moldovean, Black
Activitatea Comisiei Electorale Centrale (CEC) din această perioadă a fost una intensă, fiind adoptate 77 de hotărâri privind organizarea și desfășurarea scrutinului parlamentar. 4390 din 20 octombrie 2020 adoptată pentru alegerile Prezidențiale a avut un caracter disuasiv și a contribuit la diminuarea numărului de incidente de transportare organizată a alegătorilor. Cu referință la activitatea observatorilor, Promo-LEX a atestat că, aceștia nu au avut acces deplin la listele electorale. Totodată, Promo-LEX a estimat pentru toate cele șase săptămâni de campanie electorală, cheltuieli neraportate de cel puțin 10 859 900 de lei. Celelalte cazuri de discurs de ură au afectat membrii și susținătorii ai BECS, PLD, Președinta Republicii Moldova și alți politicieni.
Persons: ., Renato Usatîi, Fiodor Ghelici, Valeriu Munteanu, Igor Dodon, Dorin Chirtoacă, Victoria Grosu, Andrei Năstase, Iurie, Vladimir Voronin, Gheorghe, Cristian Rizea Organizations: CEC, Coaliției Civice, Alegeri, Prezidențiale, SV, PDM, PRM, Agenției, Agenției Statelor Unite, Fundației Soros Moldova Locations: Coaliției, CEC, Republicii Moldova, AUR, Victoria, Victoria Grosu Vremeș, PLD, Agenției Statelor, străinătate, Regatului Țărilor de Jos, Chișinău, Republica Moldova
Misiunea de Observare Promo-LEX a făcut public cel de al cincilea raport de monitorizare a alegerilor parlamentare anticipate din 11 iulie 2021. Cu referință la activitatea observatorilor, Promo-LEX a atestat că, aceștia nu au avut acces deplin la listele electorale. Cele mai populare activități rămân a fi distribuirea materialelor electorale (52 %) și întâlnirile electorale (30 %). Totodată, Promo-LEX a estimat pentru toate cele șase săptămâni de campanie electorală, cheltuieli neraportate de cel puțin 10 859 900 de lei. Celelalte cazuri de discurs de ură au afectat membrii și susținătorii ai BECS, PLD, Președinta Republicii Moldova și alți politicieni.
Persons: ., Renato Usatîi, Fiodor Ghelici, Valeriu Munteanu, Igor Dodon, Dorin Chirtoacă, Victoria Grosu, Andrei Năstase, Iurie, Vladimir Voronin, Gheorghe, Cristian Rizea Organizations: CEC, PDM, PRM, Agenției, Agenției Statelor Unite, Fundației Soros Moldova Locations: Republicii Moldova, AUR, Victoria, Victoria Grosu Vremeș, PLD, Agenției Statelor, străinătate, Regatului Țărilor de Jos, Chișinău, Republica Moldova
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